ISSUE 306                                                                                                    August  4, 2025
Governance Crisis: President Lai's Approval Drops to 30% 
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After the failure of the mass recall vote, President Lai Ching-te’s approval rating plunged by 10 percentage points, with more than half of the public opposing his re-election. 
Comprehensive Report 

Mass Recall Backfires: Half of the Public Does Not Want President Lai to Seek Re-Election  

 

The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has been severely impacted by its recent recall campaign failure, with multiple new polls showing a steep decline in public support for President Lai Ching-te. According to the latest data, President Lai’s approval rating dropped by 10 percentage points in July to around 30 percent, while disapproval surged past 50 percent, also up by 10 points. Public trust in President Lai fell to just 30 percent, and nearly half of respondents opposed his re-election.
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Four major policy missteps by the Lai administration caused Taiwan’s negotiations to collapse, and heavy tariffs imposed by the United States severely damaged Taiwan’s interests. 

Four Strategic Errors in Lai Administration’s U.S. Tariff Negotiations  

 

The failure of Taiwan and the United States to reach an agreement clearly means that Taiwan did not accept the demands of the United States, and those demands were undoubtedly very harsh. Therefore, to say that the imposition of a 20-percent tariff as a result of the failure to reach an agreement constitutes a “national humiliation” is premature; the facts still need to be observed and understood. 
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President Lai “canceled” his planned trip to Central and South America, reportedly due to failed transit arrangements with the United States, fueling speculation of shifting U.S.-Taiwan relations. 

Head-of-State Diplomacy Disrupted: Warning Bell for U.S.-Taiwan Relations 

 

The Office of the President announced on the evening of July 28 that President Lai Ching-te currently has no plans for overseas visits, citing the ongoing recovery from southern Taiwan's flood disaster, U.S. reciprocal tariff discussions, and regional developments. A previously rumored visit to Paraguay in early August, with stopovers in New York and Dallas, has been changed. 
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Following the failure of the July 26 recall vote, Secretary-General Lin Yu-chang of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) resigned. President Lai apologized during the DPP’s Central Standing Committee meeting, yet still instructed the party to support the second wave of recall efforts scheduled to vote on August 23. 

July 28: 

The National Development Council (NDC) issued the economic indicator for June, showing a green light for the second consecutive month, signifying stable economic conditions. However, the composite score dropped by 2 points from the previous month to 29, the lowest in the past 16 months.  Despite high levels of uncertainty, the NDC noted that tariff issues are gradually being resolved, and major economic forecasting agencies have revised global growth projections upward. If demand for AI remains strong, there is a chance that the green light signal will persist through the second half of the year.

 

July 29:

President Lai Ching-te's plan to visit Central and South American diplomatic allies and transit via New York and Dallas has been called off. According to the Office of the President, President Lai currently has no plans to travel overseas due to severe flooding in southern Taiwan. However, foreign media reports suggest that the cancelation was triggered by the Trump administration's refusal to allow Lai to transit through New York, following protest by mainland China. A scheduled meeting in June between Minister of National Defense Wellington Koo and senior Pentagon officials was also scrapped. 

 

July 30:

The Kuomintang (KMT) Central Standing Committee approved rules for the upcoming elections of party chairman and representatives, set for October 18. Chairman Eric Chu reiterated his intent to pass the baton, stating that successfully defending seven KMT legislators in the second wave of recalls on August 23 would be a crucial battle for him to confidently hand over leadership. Speculation surrounds Taichung Mayor Lu Shiow-yen's potential candidacy.

 

July 30:

Following the failure of the mass recall effort, dissent has erupted within the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). Secretary-General Lin Yu-chang has resigned. During a Central Standing Committee meeting, President Lai Ching-te apologized to civic groups and supporters but did not address whether he would resign as party chairman. He urged the party to continue supporting civic efforts ahead of the second wave of recall actions targeting KMT legislators on August 23. 

 

July 31: 

President Lai's approval ratings have plunged. According to the latest My Formosa poll, public dissatisfaction with the Lai administration rose from 46.8 percent last month to 56.6 percent, while satisfaction dropped from 44.7 percent to 34.6 percent. A separate Zhen Media poll reports satisfaction at 35.5 percent (down 10.4 points) and dissatisfaction at 50.4 percent (up 9.8 points).  

 

July 31: 

In the wake of the failed recall, opposition parties demanded Premier Cho Jung-tai's resignation, and calls within the DPP for a cabinet reshuffle have intensified. Ministers of economic affairs (Kuo Jyh-huei), health and welfare (Chiu Tai-yuan), and Education (Cheng Ying-yao) have been named. Premier Cho hinted at a possible reshuffle during an Executive Yuan meeting. Analysts suggest a likely timeline around September. 

 

July 31: 

The Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics, Executive Yuan, estimated economic growth in the second quarter at 7.96 percent, significantly higher than the May forecast of 5.23 percent, and the highest second-quarter figure in four years. The Taiwan Institute of Economic Research also revised the annual economic growth projection upward to 3.02 percent. However, scholars warn this may be a temporary boom preceding a tariff storm, leaving the full-year outlook uncertain.  

 

August 1 :

The White House announced a 20-percent tariff on Taiwan goods, higher than the 15 percent levied on major competitors Japan and South Korea. President Lai held a press conference emphasizing the tariff is temporary, and that the U.S.-Taiwan summary meeting has not concluded. He expressed confidence that the rate could be lowered after further negotiations. Future discussions will also address supply chain cooperation and Section 232-related issues. 
Published since 2019 by the Fair Winds Foundation and Association of Foreign Relations, Taiwan Weekly provides in-depth report and analysis of the major issues facing Taiwan.

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