ISSUE 294                                                                                           May 12, 2025
Catastrophic Surge: NTD Appreciates 6.21% in Two Days 
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The administration of President Lai Ching-te engaged in secret negotiations, using a sharp appreciation of the New Taiwan dollar to exchange for tariff reductions, making businesses the sacrificial lambs. 
Featured Editorial

Offsetting Tariffs with Exchange Rates Suffocates Business Survival

 

The government delegation led by Vice Premier Cheng Li-chiun and Minister without Portfolio and Trade Representative Yang Jen-ni concluded its first round of in-person trade talks with the United States in Washington on May 1, which focused on reciprocal tariffs and various economic issues. Coincidentally, immediately after the government announced the start of negotiations, the New Taiwan Dollar (NTD) posted its largest single-day appreciation against the U.S. dollar on May 2 since central bank records began. By May 5, the surge continued, with the NTD soaring 1.872 points (6.21 percent) in just two trading days—an epic rise akin to a runaway train. This raises serious suspicion: Is the government’s so-called unspoken bargaining chip essentially offering NTD appreciation in exchange for the United States lowering reciprocal tariffs? 

Featured Editorial
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President Lai commemorates World War II victory in the European victory, neglecting Taiwan's local history and causing controversy for historical confusion. 

President Lai Commemorates Victory in Europe, Makes No Mention of R.O.C. Resistance Against Japanese Aggression

 

According to Reuters, President Lai Ching-te held a commemorative event in honor of Victory in Europe Day (VE Day) at the Taipei Guest House, where he hosted foreign dignitaries and delivered a speech declaring that "aggressors will always be defeated." This marks the first time Taiwan has commemorated VE Day—a novel move. However, the timing and content of the event raise eyebrows. At the end of WWII in Europe, fierce battles in Asia were still ongoing, with Taiwanese still fighting as "Japanese soldiers" in the South Pacific. President Lai is commemorating the end of the wrong war in the wrong region at the wrong time. 

Featured Editorial
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The Economist criticized the Lai administration, puncturing the Democratic Progressive Party's (DPP) long-standing myth of U.S. favoritism. 

Why the Economist’s Report Unsettles the DPP

 

Taiwan once again landed on the cover of  The Economist, with the latest feature story highlighting the island’s dilemma caught between the U.S. and China. While it's true that Taiwan’s politics are highly polarized, The Economist’s claim that such division is hindering President Lai’s government from increasing defense spending, reducing dependence on imported energy, and preparing for crises echoes the Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) long-running narrative warfare—and even misrepresents facts. 

This Week in Taiwan
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An expert writing for Foreign Policy indicates that since taking office, President Lai has repeatedly emphasized Taiwan's sovereign independence, which could heighten the risk of war. 

May 4:

Due to global stock market fluctuations, the Financial Supervisory Commissions announced that the financial sector's profits in the first quarter totaled NT$270.6 billion (about US$8.9 billion), marking an 8.7 percent decline compared to the same period last year, turning into a recession. The overseas exposure of financial holding companies surpassed NT$29 trillion (about U$960 billion) for the first time, with the largest exposure in the U.S. market at NT$10.3 trillion (about US$343 billion). Domestic and foreign investment losses amounted to NT$6.6 billion (about US$220 million), ending five consecutive quarters of profitability.

 

Institutional investors worry that market volatility in the second quarter could lead to a triple downturn in stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange.

 

May 4

Foreign Policy published an article by Christopher Chivvis, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, titled "Trump Should Rein in Taiwan." The article argues that President Lai Ching-te's emphasis on Taiwan's sovereign independence could provoke Beijing, escalate tensions, and increase the risk of war. It suggests that the administration of President Donald Trump should restrain Lai to prevent him from misinterpreting Washington's passive stance as tacit approval, which could entangle the United States in a potential conflict. 

 

May 5

The New Taiwan Dollar surged sharply, recording its largest single-day appreciation in history. In just two trading days, it jumped NT$1.872 (a 6.21 percent increase), causing foreign exchange reserve losses estimated to reach NT$1 trillion. Exporters expressed concerns over the impact. The Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics, Executive Yuan, estimated that a 3 percent appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar could lower gross domestic product (GDP) by 0.1 percentage point.

 

In response, Governor Yang Chin-long of the Central Bank reassured the market, stating that the Central Bank would gradually intensify its intervention to stabilize the exchange rate. The Central Bank also issued a warning to currency speculators.

 

May 6

The Food and Drug Administration (FDA), Ministry of Health and Welfare, detected ractopamine, a controversial leanness-enhancing drug, in frozen pork knuckles imported from Australia, breaking the previous record of zero ractopamine-tainted pork imports. While the FDA stated that the product meets residue standards and is legally compliant, the importer pledged not to sell the batch, adhering to a zero-detection policy. The Consumers' Foundation criticized the low inspection rate (below 10 percent) and urged the government to restore 100 percent testing and disclose the distribution of meat products. 

 

May 6:

The domestically-built Hai Kun submarine was originally scheduled for sea trials in April, but the plan has been delayed, raising concerns about progress. Chief of Staff Chiu Chun-jung of the Navy Command Headquarters responded for the first time, stating that the submarine is undergoing final preparations before sea trials. Once safety is confirmed, the launch date will be decided, with the delivery deadline set for November. Regarding concerns about flooding in compartments and delays in management system testing, Chiu only stated that the system does not have major issues preventing execution. 

 

May 6:

A high school student exceling in math and science aspired to become a military doctor but was disqualified from admission to the National Defense Medical Center because he was born in Nanjing, leading to his classification as a mainland Chinese. The student protested, arguing that he has held Republic of China (Taiwan) nationality since birth and never registered household residency in mainland China. Frustrated by the decision, he plans to retake the entrance exam and apply to other medical schools under the “new resident child” category. Scholars assert that the student’s R.O.C. nationality is inherent, with no naturalization issues, urging the Ministry of National Defense to clarify the matter promptly. 

 

May 6: 

Minister of Economic Affairs Kuo Jyh-Huei is facing ongoing controversy. Media reports revealed that Kuo frequently invited officials from the Ministry of Economic Affairs and personnel from the American Institute in Taiwan to dine at a restaurant owned by his company, Topco Scientific, raising concerns about blurring the lines between public and private interests. Opposition lawmakers also questioned whether the Taitung County wind power development project was linked to businesses closely associated with Minister Kuo’s family. Minister Kuo defended himself, stating that he ceased involvement in Topco Scientific’s operations five years ago. 

 

May 8: 

The Tainan District Prosecutors Office concluded its investigation into forged signatures in the recall petition against Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) legislators Lin Chun-hsien and Wang Ting-yu, indicting 11 individuals, including deputy director of the Kuomintang’s (KMT) Tainan branch, while 37 others received deferred prosecution. This marks the first indictment in Taiwan related to “deceased signatories” in recall petitions. The KMT criticized the Investigation Bureau, Ministry of Justice, alleging that it unprecedentedly reclassified document forgery as election bribery investigations, and even rewarded investigators for case performance during the petition period, creating high-score incentives that led to aggressive investigations. .

Published since 2019 by the Fair Winds Foundation and Association of Foreign Relations, Taiwan Weekly provides in-depth report and analysis of the major issues facing Taiwan.

The conclusions and recommendations of any Taiwan Weekly article are solely those of its author(s) and do not reflect the views of the institutions that publish the newsletter.


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