ISSUE 276                                                                                             December 23, 2024
Twin City Forum Opportunity for Cross-Strait Interaction
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Other Important Events This Week 




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Mainland China used the Twin City Forum to present the benefit of Shanghai tourists and test the administration of President Lai Ching-te. How the Lai administration responds will serve as an important indicator of its cross-strait policy direction.
Featured Commentary

China Relaxes Travel to Taiwan: How Will Lai Administration Respond?

 

Thankfully, the administration of President Lai Ching-te did not block the Twin City Forum, otherwise, Taiwan’s tourism industry might have missed this good news: Shanghai plans to actively promote group tours to Taiwan. This move by mainland China is clearly a goodwill gesture aimed at Taiwan, and how the Lai administration handles this will be a critical test of its cross-strait policy. 

Featured Editorial
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The transfer of American military forces from Okinawa, Japan, to Guam indicates that the United States is no longer able to support the defense of the first island chain.

U.S. Withdraws Troops from Okinawa: Taiwan Should Be Vigilant

 

The People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) recent military activities was described by national security officials as a "silent exercise," with the Ministry of National Defense noting its impressive naval strength and its positioning between the first and second island chains. However, the true nature of this exercise remains unclear. The concept of the Pacific "island chain" still deeply influences the ruling party.

Featured Commentary
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To prevent opposition legislative amendments from passing, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) blocked the Legislative Yuan chamber, reminiscent of the recent declaration of martial law in South Korea and blocking of parliament by troops and police.

DPP Following South Korea's Footsteps

 

On December 3, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol unexpectedly declared martial law, deploying troops and police to block the National Assembly. This move, meant to safeguard national security against from North Korea and domestic pro-North Korean elements, sought to prevent lawmakers from carrying out their duties. Taiwan's ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), on the other hand, has mirrored this by locking down its legislature to block legislation backed by the opposition. The development raises concerns that under President Lai Ching-te, Taiwan’s democracy may be slowly unraveling.

This Week in Taiwan
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Former U.S. Secretary of Energy and Nobel Prize in Physics laureate Steven Chu stated that many countries worldwide have reaccepted nuclear energy as clean energy, and Taiwan should reconsider its use. (Photo from: The Storm Media)

December 14:

According to Financial Times, the Center for Strategic and International Studies and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology conducted a large-scale non-classified war game scenario involving the use of nuclear weapons in a Taiwan Strait conflict for the first time. Out of 15 simulations, only five ended with the retreat of the People's Liberation Army (PLA), a stark contrast to simulations last year where the United States achieved decisive victories. 

 

The report concludes that American policymakers should not develop new nuclear weapons beyond the existing modernization plans or seek numerical superiority in nuclear weapons to deter China from using nuclear weapons. 

 

December 15:

The Army procured 108 M1A2 Abrams tanks from the United States, with the first batch of 38 tanks arriving in Taiwan. This marks the first time in three decades that the Army has received new tanks. Military experts analyze that this will elevate the capability of the Army's tanks from the 1980s to the 21st century. These tanks, dubbed the strongest on the surface, will be fully deployed in northern Taiwan to defend the central government. 

 

December 17:

The Taipei-Shanghai Twin City Forum concluded, with Deputy Mayor Hua Yan of Shanghai announcing plans to actively promote group tours for Shanghai residents to Taiwan, seen as a goodwill gesture from Beijing. The Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) welcomed this but proposed the "Three Nos" principle for mainland Chinese tourist groups: Not for political purposes, no conditions attached, and not to be stopped at any time for coercion. The Ministry of Transportation and Communications urged mainland China to lift political restrictions and will review the ban on group tours. 

 

Although the MAC approved the Twin City Forum, the applications of 11 people, including Director Jin Mei of Shanghai's Taiwan Affairs Office and media reporters, were rejected. The MAC stated that mainland China's 22 guidelines on punishing diehard Taiwan independence separatists affect normal cross-strait exchanges, and Taiwan-related official applications will be strictly reviewed. 

 

December 17:

The Executive Yuan announced that Senior Advisor Ma Yung-cheng of the National Security Council will be appointed as Minister without Portfolio, Executive Yuan, taking over the work on whole-of-society defense resilience. According to sources, civil defense was originally handled by Minister without Portfolio Chi Lien-cheng, who has a military background and also served as executive secretary of the Whole-of-Society Defense Resilience Committee, Office of the President. However, Chi's ideas on civil defense and exercises were at odds with the Office of the President and Executive Yuan, leading to his reassignment.

 

December 18:

Former President Ma Ying-jeou visited mainland China for the third time, meeting with Director Song Tao of the Taiwan Affairs Office of mainland China's State Council in Harbin, Heilongjiang Province. The mainland had a grand lineup, including Deputy Director Qiu Kaiming, at least seven bureau chiefs, and directors of Taiwan Affairs offices from nine provinces and municipalities. Ma emphasized that Taiwan's people desire for cross-strait exchanges; this represents the true mainstream public opinion in Taiwan. Song responded that the mainland would seriously entertain each call for cross-strait exchanges.

 

December 18:

Japan's two major car manufacturers, Honda and Nissan, are negotiating a merger, which may be accelerated due to the involvement of Taiwan's Hon Hai Precision Industry Company (Foxconn). The Foxconn Group has approached Nissan to discuss acquiring shares. According to Nikkei, Honda has threatened to terminate its existing technical cooperation with Nissan if the latter pursues cooperation with Foxconn.

 

Conversely, if Foxconn attempts a hostile takeover of Nissan, then Honda will intervene to help. 

 

December 18:

Former U.S. Secretary of Energy and Nobel Prize in Physics laureate Steven Chu was invited to Taiwan to give a keynote speech about challenges in achieving power overload and net zero carbon dioxide emissions. Given that many countries worldwide have indeed reaccepted nuclear energy as clean energy, Chu urged that Taiwanese politicians should consider the use of nuclear energy across party lines, as it can bring energy security. The Ministry of Economic Affairs did not comment on Chu's remarks. 

 

December 19:

The Central Bank announced that interest rates would remain unchanged. In response to the Federal Reserve's "hawkish" signals about slowing the pace of rate cuts next year, Governor Yang Chin-long of the Central Bank stated that there is currently no possibility of a dovish stance on interest rates. Yang mentioned that the Central Bank slightly revised the economic growth rate for next year to 3.13 percent, without incorporating changes in American trade policies to the model due to significant uncertainties, which are an important variable for economic growth next year.

 

December 20:

After intense clashes between ruling and opposition party legislators, the Legislative Yuan passed amendments to the Public Officials Election and Recall Act, Constitutional Court Procedure Act, and Act Governing the Allocation of Government Revenues and Expenditures. The amended Election and Recall Act strictly reviews whether the signatories of recall petitions are falsified; the amended Constitutional Court Procedure Act stipulates that when grand justices make a declaration of unconstitutionality, the number of consenting justices must not be less than nine; the amended Fiscal Allocation Act allows local governments to receive more tax revenue. 

 

To prevent the passage of these bills, the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) mobilized crowds to surround the Legislative Yuan and attempted to storm the chamber but were stopped by police. After the votes passed, the opposition called the moment a victory for the people, while the morale of the ruling party was low. It criticized the opposition for destroying the Constitution and disrupting governance.

Published since 2019 by the Fair Winds Foundation and Association of Foreign Relations, Taiwan Weekly provides in-depth report and analysis of the major issues facing Taiwan.

The conclusions and recommendations of any Taiwan Weekly article are solely those of its author(s) and do not reflect the views of the institutions that publish the newsletter.


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