ISSUE 275                                                                                             December 16, 2024
Non-Existent "Largest Military Exercise in 30 Years"
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National security officials falsely claimed that the People's Liberation Army (PLA) conducted the largest military exercise in three decades after President Lai Ching-te's overseas visit, reflecting serious disarray in Taiwan's national security crisis.
Featured Commentary

Risks of Using National Security for Political Manipulation

 

Ahead of Taiwan's presidential election in January this year, a nationwide alert was issued, warning mainland Chinese missiles passing over Taiwan, using terms like "missile" and "air raid." However, the satellite launch by the mainland was publicly announced in advance, so why issued an alert? The Ministry of National Defense explained that the rocket, originally expected to fly over the Bashi Channel, had shifted north, but our detection showed that it veered north and flew over southern Taiwan. However, the owner of the "Einstein Probe" satellite, the European Space Agency, immediately announced that the satellite had successfully entered orbit and was operational. Despite deviating over 100 kilometers during launch, it was able to return to its original trajectory, a remarkable breakthrough in space technology. As the elections concluded, more news poured in, and such unreasonable explanations were no longer questioned.

Featured Commentary
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To obstruct the Twin Cities Forum between Taipei and Shanghai, the Mainland Affairs Council has resorted to a strategy of creating obstacles to foster goodwill and is holding Taipei responsible for the consequences.

MAC's New Tactic to Block Cross-Strait Exchanges

 

The Twin Cities Forum between Taipei and Shanghai has faced several setbacks, originally planned for July or August but delayed until December. Despite preparations being in place, mainland Chinese military actions soured cross-strait relations, creating uncertainty around the event. Fortunately, the Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) eventually gave conditional approval, allowing the 15th Forum to proceed. The MAC employed a strategy of "creating resistance first, then removing it," creating goodwill while shifting political responsibility to the Taipei City Government, and indirectly pressuring the mainland to curb military drills.

Featured Commentary
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Greed, infighting, and deception were chosen by the United Daily News as the representative words for 2024, reflecting public perception of the Democratic Progressive Party's (DPP) eight years in power.

Annual Representative Words "Greed, Infighting, and Deception" Reflect Perception of DPP Governance

 

The top three words in the United Daily News' annual poll—"greed," "infighting," and "deception"—highlight the failures of the Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) eight years in power. Despite the public’s vote to prevent the DPP from having a monopoly on power, the ruling party has shown disrespect for the legislature and even sought the Constitutional Court's support to undermine opposition parties, blocking legislative oversight measures and misleading the public about the constitutionality of the death penalty. These three words—"greed," "infighting," and "deception"—accurately capture the situation.

This Week in Taiwan
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Former Speaker Wang Jin-pyng proposed a new cross-strait policy narrative that the two sides of the Taiwan Strait are not subordinate to one another in terms of jurisdiction but share the same undivided sovereignty. It is viewed as backed by the local faction of the Kuomintang (KMT). (Photo from: China Times)

December 7:

Chen Mei-hui, the chief blockchain financial crime investigator at Taiwan's XREX cryptocurrency exchange, died in a car accident. Due to her special role, several major fraud cases that she was investigating have been suspended. Civil judicial reform groups and anti-fraud organizations suspect that the accident was not as simple as it seems, leading to various conspiracy theories. Prosecutor-General Hsing Tai-chao of the Supreme Prosecutors Office believes that investigation is needed and established a special task force to look into the matter. 

 

December 7:

Wang Yifu, an important advisor on Taiwan affairs to the Chinese Communist Party and president of mainland China's National Taiwan Research Association, was scheduled to attend a closed-door academic seminar in Taiwan but ultimately did not make the trip. The missed opportunity for face-to-face interaction with Minister Chiu Chui-cheng of the Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) has led to speculation that Taiwan's senior national security officials may have intervened. Wang, a close friend of Chinese President Xi Jinping, has frequently offered advice on Taiwan-related and foreign affairs issues and is generally considered to have a more moderate stance on Taiwan. 

 

December 8:

Wang Jin-pyng, former speaker of the Legislative Yuan, proposed a new narrative on cross-strait relations, advocating that the two sides of the Taiwan Strait are not subordinate to one another in terms of jurisdiction but share the same undivided sovereignty. According to Wang, "separate governance without separation" is the most pragmatic approach to easing current cross-strait tensions, breaking the deadlock, and creating opportunities for peace. Wang stated that he would not mention the 1992 Consensus and would wait to see reactions from all sides to his proposal and whether mainland China would accept this proposal. This declaration is seen as a new cross-strait narrative backed by the local faction of the Kuomintang (KMT). 

 

December 9:

At 6 AM, mainland China's Civil Aviation Administration issued a flight notice, announcing the establishment of seven reserve areas along the southeast coast from 6 AM on December 9 to 8 PM on December 11, covering areas from the Yangtze River estuary to the eastern offshore waters of Guangdong Province. According to Reuters and other sources, senior Taiwanese national security officials stated that China has deployed nearly 90 ships, about two-thirds of which are warships, in the waters around Taiwan, the East China Sea, and South China Sea, marking the largest deployment in nearly three decades. However, the U.S. military stated that this deployment is consistent with past large-scale exercises and does not believe it is related to President Lai Ching-te's recent overseas visit.

The People's Liberation Army (PLA) has yet to comment or confirm drills taking place.

 

December 9:

The Ministry of Finance announced trade statistics for November, with exports reaching $41 billion, a year-on-year growth rate of 9.7 percent. Driven by artificial intelligence (AI) business opportunities, the annual trade surplus is expected to hit a record high. 

Exports to the United States and Southeast Asian nations are expected to set new records. However, exports to mainland China and Hong Kong may decline for three consecutive years due to the weak mainland economy, U.S.-China confrontation, and supply chain de-coupling from China. 

 

December 11:

The MAC announced its approval for Taipei to host the Twin Cities Forum, but with a caveat that if the pressure from Communist China on Taiwan worsens, Taipei may be asked to postpone the event at any time. At the same time, the MAC directly rejected the application of some members of the Shanghai Taiwan Affairs Office delegation, including the new director Jin Mei. Taipei Mayor Chiang Wan-an expressed regret and called for confidence in Taiwan’s democratic resilience, as well as open and straightforward communication. 

The Twin Cities Forum is one of the few remaining official cross-strait dialogue platforms, held alternately by Taipei and Shanghai since 2010. This time, the delegation from Shanghai will be led by Deputy Mayor Hua Yuan. 

 

December 11:

The Finance Committee of the Legislative Yuan visited Kinmen for an inspection. During a discussion with local financial and banking industry representatives, Legislator and committee chair Chen Yu-jen proposed the initiative of “cross-strait financial pilot zones.” This received a positive response from the Taiwan Affairs Office of mainland China’s State Council, which expressed willingness to explore new paths and models for cross-strait financial integration and development with Kinmen. 

 

December 12:

The Legislative Yuan conducted a review of the nominees for grand justice of the Constitutional Court, Judicial Yuan, with their attitudes towards the death penalty a focal point. Among the seven nominees, four advocate for abolishing the death penalty, one did not express an opinion, and two support the death penalty. 

Following the Constitutional Court's ruling which substantively abolished the death penalty in September, the first case of a death sentence commuted to life imprisonment emerged. In a 2022 arson case that resulted in eight deaths, the suspect put on a fire burning his mother, wife, and children to death. However, due to his showing remorse upon surrendering, he was deemed eligible for a reduced sentence. The commutation has sparked public controversy.

Published since 2019 by the Fair Winds Foundation and Association of Foreign Relations, Taiwan Weekly provides in-depth report and analysis of the major issues facing Taiwan.

The conclusions and recommendations of any Taiwan Weekly article are solely those of its author(s) and do not reflect the views of the institutions that publish the newsletter.


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