ISSUE 267                                                                                                October 23, 2024
PLA Military Exercises Demonstrate Ability to Blockade Taiwan
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The People's Liberation Army's (PLA) "Joint Sword 2024-B" military exercises suggest that in the future, mainland China will use the Coast Guard's "island-surrounding cruise control" as part of its "python strategy" to encircle Taiwan.
Featured Commentary

PLA Exercises Demonstrate Capability to Control Strategic Ports and Areas

 

The anticipated People’s Liberation Army (PLA) "Joint Sword-2024B" military exercise took place as scheduled but concluded unexpectedly within a single day. This signals a political message to the United States, the administration of President Lai Ching-te, and the people of Taiwan, which has been widely interpreted. This article focuses on the military strategic implications.

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Senior high schools issued "Youth Service Consent Forms" to high school students, raising public concern about rising cross-strait tensions and the potential mobilization of students for war.

Plan to Mobilize High School Students? Inappropriate Policy Causes Panic, Swiftly Halted

 

A high school "Youth Service Consent Form" has stirred up significant concerns, which the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) administration likely did not anticipate. Despite the Ministry of Education (MOE) announcing on October 17 that the consent form would no longer be used, and that it would adjust the "Youth Service Mobilization Preparation Classification Plan," the mobilization for war and the panic over "student deployment" continues to spread in society.

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Minister of Economic Affairs J.W. Kuo's remarks about building green power plants in the Philippines and transmitting the electricity back to Taiwan triggered a public outcry and highlighted Taiwan's electricity shortage dilemma.

Power Shortage Solution? Economic Minister Proposes Importing Green Electricity from the Philippines

 

Minister of Economic Affairs J.W. Kuo's statement that "We should build green power plants in the Philippines and transfer the electricity back to Taiwan" has sparked public outrage. Although Minister Kuo has apologized, he did not retract the idea. The Executive Yuan further stated that countries in the region with similar goals could collaborate on carbon reduction, confirming that the proposal to develop energy in the Philippines is not just a personal notion of Minister Kuo’s but a strategic direction that the government is considering.

This Week in Taiwan
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On her first overseas visit since leaving office, former President Tsai Ing-wen stated at the European Parliament that Taiwan is committed to maintaining the status quo in the Taiwan Strait and is willing to engage with Beijing based on dignity and reciprocity. (Photo from:  United Daily News

October 13:

The recall vote for Keelung Mayor Hsieh Kuo-liang resulted in 86,014 votes (55.1 percent) against and 69,934 votes (44.8 percent) in favor, so the recall was not passed. This case is seen as a prelude to the Democratic Progressive Party's (DPP) large-scale recall campaign against opposition legislators next year. To prevent malicious political manipulation of recalls, the opposition party plans to push for amendments to the law to raise the recall threshold. 

 

October 14:

The People's Liberation Army (PLA) announced the launch of the "Joint Sword-2024B" exercise around the Taiwan Strait and Taiwan, claiming that it would serve to deter separatist forces seeking Taiwan independence. The exercise concluded at 6 PM, after 13 hours. By 6 AM on October 15, the Armed Forces detected 153 PLA aircraft, the highest number of PLA aircraft operating around Taiwan in a single day; there were also 17 warships and 17 government ships. Compared to the first encirclement exercise during the visit of then-U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan in 2022 and the "Joint Sword-2024A" exercise in May this year, this exercise was closer to Taiwan's main island, but PLA military aircraft did not cross the 24-nautical-mile line. 

 

October 15:

Minister of Economic Affairs Kuo Chih-hui stated in an interview that to find sufficient green power, the government is seeking assistance from Director Raymond Greene of the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) to build green power plants in neighboring countries such as the Philippines and Japan and transmit electricity back to Taiwan. According to industry insiders, the uncertainty of constructing submarine cables is high and would weaken national security, urging the Ministry of Economic Affairs to reconsider. Minister Kuo apologized for his imprecise remarks during a legislative session the next day and promised to present a more comprehensive plan within six months. 

 

October 16:

Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Fujian and did not make any tough statements on Taiwan. He proposed taking bigger steps in exploring new paths and building a new pilot zone for cross-strait integration and development. He emphasized promoting cross-strait cultural exchanges and Chinese heritage and enhancing the national, cultural, and state identity of Taiwan compatriots. XI's first stop was Dongshan Island, the site of the last-scale counterattack by the Nationalist forces against the mainland, which carries military and political significance.

 

October 17:

Former President Tsai Ing-wen made her first overseas visit since leaving office, attending the Forum 2000 in the Czech Republic. During her visit to the European Parliament, she stated that Taiwan is committed to maintaining the status quo in the Taiwan Strait and is willing to engage with Beijing on the basis of dignity and reciprocity. Meanwhile, the Guardian reported that the United Kingdom Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office requested Tsai to postpone her visit to avoid angering Beijing before Foreign Secretary David Lammy's first visit; Tsai's visit to Britain has been postponed to next spring. According to news website Politico, Tsai is expected to visit the United States after the American presidential election. Tsai's office did not comment. 

 

October 17:

The government of South Africa requested that the Taipei Liaison Office in the Republic of South Africa relocate from the capital Pretoria by the end of October. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) stated that it is still making the utmost efforts. According to related reports, Minister of Foreign Affairs Lin Chia-lung instructed MOFA to devise countermeasures, including requesting the Liaison Office of South Africa to relocate from Taipei and considering strict visa application reviews for South African nationals. 

 

October 18:

Mainland China's National Immigration Administration stated that since the beginning of this year, the numbers of Taiwan compatriot permits issued, Taiwanese entering the mainland and Taiwanese settling on the mainland have all increased significantly, with the number of settlement applications exceeding the total of the past decade. According to analysis by mainland Chinese scholars, this is due to the rapid development and increased opportunities in the mainland in recent years, as well as the heightened risk of war in the Taiwan Strait, making the mainland a natural destination for immigration and risk avoidance. 

 

October 18:

Three months after its former chairman Cheng Wen-tsan resigned in July due to corruption allegations, the Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF) announced that Wu Feng-shan, former member of the Control Yuan, will serve as its new chairman. Wu expressed hope that mainland China's Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits (ARATS) will reciprocate goodwill and jointly pursue cross-strait peace to enhance the well-being of people on both sides.

Taiwan Weekly is a newsletter released every week by Fair Winds Foundation and Association of Foreign Relations which provides coverage and perspectives on the latest developments in Taiwan.

The conclusions and recommendations of any Taiwan Weekly article are solely those of its author(s) and do not reflect the views of the institutions that publish the newsletter.


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