ISSUE 266                                                                                                October 16, 2024
President Lai: R.O.C. Might Be Motherland of P.R.C.
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President Lai Ching-te's National Day Address did not go beyond his previous new "Two State theory," presenting a situation where the United States is satisfied, Taiwan stable, and mainland China not alarmed.
Featured Opinion

President Lai's Struggle to Interpret the R.O.C.

 

The National Day of the Republic of China (Taiwan) on October 10 passed without major incident, marked by President Lai Ching-te's address, which adhered to the familiar new “Two State theory." Under apparent pressure from the United States, President Lai refrained from provocative statements, achieving a balance that left the United States satisfied, Taiwan stable, and mainland China unalarmed. How President Lai's speech is interpreted is critical for future cross-strait relations.

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taiwanweekly2019@gmail.com
President Lai's national security team lacks key figures, leading to consecutive blunders. President Lai is not following former President Tsai Ing-wen's policies, and the United States is gradually losing patience with him. 

On National Identity, President Lai Not Following Tsai's Policies

 

Recently, the administration of President Lai Ching-te released two press statements closely related to the national security team.

Featured Survey
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Some 66 percent of respondents believe that Taiwan should maintain equidistance to both the United States and mainland China and not lean towards either side.

66% Believe Taiwan Should Lean Towards Neither U.S. or China

 

According to the annual survey on cross-strait relations conducted by the United Daily News, 66 percent of the general public believe Taiwan should not lean toward either the United States, or China. If a military conflict occurs between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, 49 percent% of respondents believe that the United States would send troops to defend Taiwan, while 42 percent think it would not.

This Week in Taiwan
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During their first meeting with Chinese Premier Li Qiang, newly inaugurated Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba emphasized that Japan's position on Taiwan remains unchanged. (Photo from: United Daily News)

October 5:

During his remarks at a National Day celebration event, President Lai Ching-te stated that the People's Republic of China just celebrated its 75th birthday, while the Republic of China is about to celebrate its 113th birthday. In terms of age, it is impossible for the P.R.C. to be the motherland of the people of the R.O.C. On the contrary, the R.O.C. instead might be the motherland of people over 75 years old in the P.R.C. According to President Lai, however, since the R.O.C. has taken root in Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu for 75 years, there is no need to discuss this relationship anymore. 

 

October 5:

If mainland China besieges Taiwan with its financial, economic, and information networks, how can Taiwan respond and counteract? The counterattack? The Taiwan Academy of Banking and Finance and Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies conducted a financial war game, suggesting that Taiwan join the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and sign a currency swap agreement with the United States to strengthen Taiwan's financial resilience. However, scholars pointed out that mainland China is a member of the IMF and ranks third in voting power, conditions which make it difficult for Taiwan to join the IMF. 

 

October 6:

According to the annual opinion poll on cross-strait relations conducted by the United Daily News, the public's perception of cross-strait interactions continues to deteriorate. The proportion of people who believe that cross-strait economic and trade relations are in competition has risen to 48 percent, a record high in the survey's history. Despite this, the public generally believes that the possibility of a cross-strait war is low. If a military conflict occurs between the two sides, 49 percent believe that the United States will send troops to defend Taiwan, while 42 percent think it will not. 

 

Regarding President Lai's handling of cross-strait affairs, 44 percent are satisfied, but 43 percent are dissatisfied. Some 54 percent advocate for Taiwan to maintain the status quo forever, while 30 percent support independence, and 12 percent unification. Some 66 percent believe that Taiwan should not lean towards either the United States or mainland China, and 51 percent of Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) supporters also believe that Taiwan should maintain equidistance with both the United States and China. 

 

October 7:

The fee rate for carbon emissions was finalized, with a general rate of NT$300 per ton. If companies choose the highest standard of voluntary reduction plans, they can apply for a preferential rate. Trial declarations are due by the end of May next year, and formal charges will begin the year after. Environmental groups strongly protested, stating that the low rate does not provide enough incentive for companies to reduce carbon emissions. The Chinese National Federation of Industries (CNFI), on the other hand, believes that the rate is still too high and not conducive to the low-carbon transformation of industries.

 

October 8:

The Ministry of Finance announced that exports in September reached $40.5 billion, a record high for the same period in previous years, with an annual growth rate of 4.5 percent, marking 11 consecutive months of growth. 

 

Notably, thanks to artificial intelligence (AI) business opportunities, global supply chain restructuring, and accelerated reshoring and localization of American manufacturing, exports to the United States maintained a strong position. In the first nine months of this year, exports to the United States were $84.2 billion, rewriting the previous full-year record ahead of schedule with an annual growth rate of 59.7 percent and trade surplus with the United States of about $47.7 billion. 

 

October 10:

President Lai delivered his first National Day speech, stating that the Republic of China has taken root in Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu, and is not subordinate to the People's Republic of China, which has no right to represent Taiwan. He declared to Beijing that Taiwan is determined to maintain peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, safeguard regional security, pursue peace and common prosperity, and bring benefits to the people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait. According to President Lai, countries around the world look to China to make contributions to the world, value people's livelihoods internally, and maintain peace externally. 

 

Unwilling to endorse President Lai's new "Two State theory," former President Ma Ying-jeou refused to attend the National Day ceremony; former President Chen Shui-bian, who was under criminal prosecution and on medical parole, was invited to attend again after 17 years. 

 

October 10:

Recently inaugurated Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba of Japan attended the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit in Laos and held his first meeting with Chinese Premier Li Qiang. Both sides confirmed that they would promote their "strategic relationship of mutual benefit," which is of shared interest to both Japan and China. Prime Minister Ishiba emphasized Japan's position on Taiwan, as set out by the Japan–China Joint Communiqué, has not changed. 

 

October 12:

Her first foreign trip since leaving office, former President Tsai Ing-wen departed for the Czech Republic to attend and deliver remarks at the 28th Forum 2000. The rest of her itinerary was not disclosed before departure. President Lai wished Tsai a successful trip, hoping she would expand Taiwan's international visibility and support.

Taiwan Weekly is a newsletter released every week by Fair Winds Foundation and Association of Foreign Relations which provides coverage and perspectives on the latest developments in Taiwan.

The conclusions and recommendations of any Taiwan Weekly article are solely those of its author(s) and do not reflect the views of the institutions that publish the newsletter.


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